By: Manisha Sethi Aug. 6, 2018

Investors closely monitor housing market and building permit indices as a proxy for the health of the economy. For example, investors eagerly await the release of the census bureau permit data, which has more than a 45 day delay and make investing decisions based on the delayed data. Raltin uses building permit data from Gavop, to give investors insights into consumer home improvement projects with only about a week’s delay. Gavop, an affiliated real estate, housing, home insurance and home improvement data & research service, sources building permit data directly from a city’s government website on a daily basis. Raltin’s data scrubbing of raw data involves only including those that are relevant to home improvement projects.

Raltin’s analysis of this data has proved to be extremely accurate in forecasting larger economic cycles. The below chart shows the rolling 3-month changes compared to the prior years rolling three-month changes from 2007 to 2015. The yellow highlighted section in the below chart for the four cities of Chicago, New York, Raleigh & San Francisco shows a negative growth in the rolling 3 months in the 2008 & 2009 period followed by growth in subsequent years.

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Raltin’s data set includes data sources from twelve major cities on a daily and weekly basis. This data helps investors get an edge in both fundamental and algorithmic investing. To know more about these data sets, please email raltin@raltin.com



ABOUT THE AUTHOR

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Manisha Sethi

Manisha is currently working with Raltin as a financial research analyst. She has previously worked with Trefis and other financial services companies in research & analysis. Manisha holds a BCom honors degree from the Delhi University and an MBA in Finance from ICFAI Business School, Hyderabad.

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